The Final Chase: MI, DC, and the Last Open Door to the IPL 2025 Playoffs
The 2025 IPL season, a theatre of rising arcs and collapsing dreams, is hurtling towards its most dramatic act. With three playoff spots snapped up by Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings, and Gujarat Titans, the spotlight now zeroes in on a narrow corridor — the last remaining door into the top four. That door, now swinging precariously, is flanked by two persistent contenders: Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals. And with Lucknow Super Giants officially shut out of the race after their defeat to Sunrisers Hyderabad, the narrative is reduced to two teams, one ticket.
Scenario 1: If MI beats DC, MI will qualify
Mumbai Indians currently sit on 14 points. A win against Delhi Capitals takes them to 16, enough to seal the fourth playoff berth regardless of other results. It’s a clean-cut route: beat DC, and MI are through. The match against the Punjab Kings afterward will help them fight for the top two positions. High stakes, but all in their hands.
Scenario 2: If DC beats MI & PBKS, DC will qualify
Delhi Capitals, on 13 points, must climb a steeper hill. Two wins from two — first against Mumbai, then against a strong Punjab outfit, will take them to 17. That would not only guarantee qualification but might even nudge them into the top two depending on other results. It’s the cleanest path on paper, but not the easiest. To conquer back-to-back giants is to earn your spot the hard way.
Scenario 3: If DC beats MI but loses to PBKS, & MI beats PBKS, MI will qualify
This is where it tightens. If DC defeats Mumbai, taking them to 15, but falls to Punjab in their last match, and MI bounce back to beat Punjab, MI will end on 16 points while DC remains stuck at 15. In this scenario, MI takes the fourth spot. Despite losing to DC earlier, their extra win and point haul secure them the edge — NRR won’t even come into play.
Scenario 4: If MI loses both games, MI will be eliminated
For Mumbai, this is the road they must avoid. Consecutive losses to Delhi and Punjab would leave them stranded on 14, vulnerable and out. Delhi, even with one win from their two remaining games, would go past them. And if they win both, MI won’t even be in the conversation. This route spells the end — a hard exit from a season that’s shown both promise and fragility.
Each scenario has its weight, but what they all reinforce is the razor-thin margin between qualification and elimination. Mumbai holds the statistical advantage — more points and a better NRR — but Delhi has destiny partially in their hands too. The MI vs DC match will be the tournament’s pressure cooker moment, a quasi-knockout that sets the tone for the final playoff picture. All eyes now turn to May 21, when the next chapter in this IPL thriller will be written.
